Es el momento de nacionalizar los bancos insolventes

NUEVA YORK – Hace un año, predije que las pérdidas de las entidades financieras de los Estados Unidos llegarían al menos a un billón de dólares y posiblemente hasta dos billones. En aquel momento, el consenso entre los economistas y las autoridades era el de que esos cálculos aproximados eran exagerados, porque se creía que las pérdidas provocadas por las hipotecas de riesgo ascendían a un total de sólo unos 200.000 millones de dólares.

Como señalé, al deslizarse la economía de los Estados Unidos y la mundial hacia una profunda recesión, las pérdidas de los bancos superarían con mucho las correspondientes a las hipotecas de mayor riesgo y, además de éstas, comprenderían las de riesgo medio y las de riesgo mínimo, la propiedad inmobiliaria comercial, las tarjetas de crédito, los préstamos para la compra de automóviles, los préstamos a estudiantes, los préstamos comerciales e industriales, los bonos de empresas, los bonos soberanos, los bonos estatales y de las administraciones locales y las pérdidas de todos los activos que hubieran titulizado dichos préstamos. De hecho, desde entonces las amortizaciones hechas por bancos de los EE.UU. ya han superado la marca del billón de dólares (el tope mínimo de mis cálculos aproximados) y entidades como el FMI y Goldman Sachs predicen ahora pérdidas de más de dos billones de dólares.

Pero, si pensamos que la cifra de dos billones de dólares es ya enorme, los últimos cálculos aproximados hechos por mi empresa de consultoría para la investigación RGE Monitor indican que el total de pérdidas de los préstamos hechos por entidades financieras de los EE.UU. y la pérdida del valor de mercado de los activos con los que cuentan (por ejemplo, titulaciones hipotecarias) ascenderán nada menos que a 3,6 billones de dólares.

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