Nationaliser les banques insolvables

NEW YORK – Il y a un an, je prédisais que les pertes des institutions financières américaines atteindraient au moins un milliard de milliards de dollars, voire deux. A l’époque, les économistes et les responsables politiques s’accordaient à dire que ces estimations étaient exagérées, puisqu’on pensait que les pertes liées aux subprimes ne totaliseraient qu’environ 200 milliards de dollars.

Comme je l’ai fait remarqué, l’économie américaine et mondiale glissant vers une grave récession, les déficits bancaires iraient bien au-delà de ces prêts hypothécaires à risque, au point d’inclure les subprimes, les near-primes et les primes, l’immobilier commercial, les cartes de crédit, les prêts automobiles et étudiants, les prêts industriels et commerciaux, les obligations émises par des entreprises privées, les obligations souveraines, les obligations d’État nationales et locales et les déficits sur tous les actifs qui ont titrisé ces prêts. En effet, depuis lors, les dépréciations effectuées par les banques américaines ont déjà franchi la barre du milliard de milliards de dollars (d’après mon estimation plancher des pertes), et des institutions comme le FMI et Goldman Sachs prévoient maintenant des pertes supérieures à deux milliards de milliards de dollars.

Si ce chiffre vous paraît déjà astronomique, sachez que selon les dernières estimations de mon cabinet de recherche, RGE Monitor, les pertes totales des prêts accordés par les compagnies financières américaines et la chute du cours des actifs qu’elles détiennent (telles les valeurs mobilières adossées à une hypothèque) s’élèveront à environ 3,6 milliards de milliards de dollars.

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