Il est tant de parler politique à Kaboul

LONDRES – A l’heure où les soldats américains et ceux de l’OTAN se préparent à passer un dixième Noël en Afghanistan, le dernier mot à la mode est : « transition », le processus de transfert de la responsabilité en matière de sécurité des forces internationales aux forces afghanes avant le retrait des troupes étrangères, qui devrait débuter au printemps 2011. Mais, pour réaliser cet espoir que mettent dans ce nouveau jargon les soldats ordinaires, les dirigeants occidentaux devront concevoir une stratégie politique claire pour l’Afghanistan, sans quoi le pays restera en guerre.

Les armées américaines et européennes et les dirigeants civils ont répété à maintes reprises qu’il n’y avait pas de solution purement militaire pour mettre fin à la guerre en Afghanistan. Pourtant, les états de l’OTAN n’ont pas de réponse à la question qui découle logiquement de cela : qu’impliquerait une solution politique ? Ils préfèrent plutôt retomber sur des schémas principalement militaires pour renforcer la capacité de l’armée et de la police du pays, tout en tenant compte de la pression intérieure, pour montrer que l’Afghanistan ne sera pas un conflit sans fin.

Les Afghans eux-mêmes sont massivement en faveur d’un arrangement politique pour mettre fin au conflit, comme l’a confirmé une récente enquête nationale d’opinion menée par la Asia Foundation. Ils subissent le poids de 40 ans de guerre, et sont tout à fait conscients du fait que les forces internationales planifient leur départ. Leurs craintes et leurs préoccupations se focalisent sur le type d’héritage qui sera laissé, et sur la capacité de l’état afghan à assurer sécurité, justice et bonne gouvernance, ce qu’il a jusqu’ici été incapable de faire face à une insurrection dont la force n’a pas réellement été affaiblie.

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