Greece debt mural Louisa Gouliamaki/Stringer/Getty Images

Llegó la hora de la reducción de la deuda de Grecia

WASHINGTON, DC – Una vez más, Grecia se encuentra en un punto de inflexión. Debido a que sus saldos de efectivo en caja se encuentran gravemente estresados, parece poco probable que el país sea capaz de pagar sus deudas, mismas que cual cascada llegarán a su fecha de vencimiento, una tras otra, durante los próximos meses. Es por esta razón que el país puso en marcha, una vez más, una ronda de polémicos y prolongados debates con sus acreedores – ronda que, una vez más, puede conducir a otra solución de corto plazo. Sin embargo, prolongar nuevamente la situación no es, de ninguna forma, la única opción que tienen los negociadores. De hecho, ese es el abordaje equivocado.

Cuando se hace frente a graves problemas de pago, un país tiene cinco maniobras básicas a su disposición. Puede, en primer lugar, utilizar los fondos de reservas monetarias y de riqueza que acumuló durante mejores épocas y, en segundo lugar, puede contraer préstamos externos para cumplir con los pagos que vencen en el corto plazo. En tercer lugar, puede aplicar de forma simultánea o, posteriormente, medidas de austeridad nacional (tales como elevar los impuestos o recortar los gastos) que liberan recursos, mismos que, a su vez, se usan para pagar las deudas.

En cuarto lugar, un país carente de dinero en efectivo también puede poner en práctica estrategias para estimular el crecimiento económico, generando de esta forma ingresos adicionales, que posteriormente se pueden utilizar para realizar parte de los pagos. Y, en caso de que nada de esto funcione, puede intentar una quinta alternativa: permitir que las fuerzas del mercado implementen la mayor parte del ajuste, ya sea a través de grandes movimientos en los precios (incluyendo en la tasa de cambio de divisas) o forzando una moratoria.

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