Greece debt mural Louisa Gouliamaki/Stringer/Getty Images

减少希腊债务正当时

华盛顿—希腊再一次站在了拐点。其陷阱余额严重告急,看似已无望能够支付未来几个月内到期的一连串债务。因此它正在与债权人进行新一轮充满争吵、旷日持久的讨论——最后的结果极有可能又是一个短期解决方案。但拖延并非谈判者的唯一选择。事实上,这也是错误的方针。

在面临严重的偿付问题时,一国有五个基本选择可用。首先,它可以消耗好光景时积累的货币储备和财富;其次,它可以从外部借贷满足短期内到期的偿付。第三,它可以同时或随后实施国内紧缩措施(如提高税收或降低支出),以释放资源偿还债务。

第四,囿于现金的国家还可以实施经济增长刺激战略,从而产生可用于部分偿付债务的增量收入。而如果所有这些都不管用,它可以追求第五选择:让市场力量施加大部分调整,不管是通过价格(包括汇率)大幅波动还是通过被迫违约。

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