Es tiempo de que China haga flotar su moneda

China está recibiendo presiones para que deje de intentar apuntalar al dólar estadounidense en los mercados monetarios mundiales. Sus oponentes recalcan el daño que esta política está causando a otros países. Pero las autoridades chinas podrían responder más favorablemente a un argumento que recalca cómo la propia buena salud de la economía de China se podría beneficiar con el abandono de la política del tipo de cambio que ata el yuan al dólar.

No es difícil plantear un argumento de este tipo. Actualmente, China se encuentra aplicando un contradictorio conjunto de políticas que, paradójicamente, socava su propia economía mientras apuntala la de EE.UU., al aceptar de manera acomodaticia las medidas artificiosas de la Reserva Federal para intentar impulsar la reactivación. China y Hong Kong son los principales compradores netos de valores del Tesoro de EE.UU. De lo contrario, los rendimientos de los bonos del Tesoro serían mucho más altos, lo que frustraría la expansión monetaria impulsada por la Reserva Federal.

La fijación al dólar ha producido en China grandes (y crecientes) reservas de moneda extranjera que están generando las presiones inflacionarias locales y haciendo que la deuda del sector público crezca fuera de toda proporción. Esto es así porque los controles de capital oficiales obligan a los exportadores a depositar monedas “duras” en el Banco Popular de China a cambio de yuanes recién impresos (usualmente como depósitos bancarios) o deuda del gobierno. Tarde o temprano estas dos componendas se volverán inadmisibles, ya que generarán una tasa inflacionaria intolerable o una carga insostenible de deuda del sector público.

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