Es wird Zeit, dass China den Wechselkurs freigibt

China wird derzeit unter Druck gesetzt, seine Interventionen zur Stützung des US-Dollars auf den Weltwährungsmärkten zu beenden. Die Gegner der chinesischen Politik betonen dabei, wie viel Schaden diese anderen Ländern zufügt. Möglicherweise jedoch würden sich die chinesischen Behörden für eine Argumentation zugänglicher erweisen, die aufzeigt, wie Chinas eigene wirtschaftliche Gesundheit von der Aufgabe seiner gegenwärtigen, den Yuan an den Dollar koppelnden Wechselkurspolitik profitieren könnte.

Eine derartige Argumentation ist leicht zu erbringen. China verfolgt gegenwärtig eine widersprüchliche Politik, die paradoxerweise seine eigene Volkswirtschaft untergräbt und die amerikanische stützt, indem es die Federal Reserve bei der Ankurbelung der US-Wirtschaft unterstützt: China und Hongkong sind die größten Nettoerwerber von US-Schatzanleihen. Ohne sie wäre die Verzinsung von Schatzanleihen viel höher, was die Geldmengenexpansion durch die Fed unmöglich machen würde.

Daheim in China hat die Anbindung des Yuan an den Dollar zu großen und noch immer wachsenden Devisenreserven geführt, die den Inflationsdruck im Inland anheizen und zu einer Aufblähung der Staatsverschuldung führen. Dies rührt daher, dass die staatlichen Bestimmungen zur Regulierung des Kapitalverkehrs die Exporteure verpflichten, bei der chinesischen Zentralbank harte Devisen zu deponieren – im Austausch gegen frisch gedruckte Yuans (normalerweise in Form von Bankeinlagen) oder Staatsanleihen. Beide Methoden werden sich langfristig als unhaltbar erweisen, weil sie entweder zu einer nicht hinnehmbaren Inflationsrate oder einer nicht aufrecht zu erhaltenden öffentlichen Schuldenlast führen.

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