Refinery column

Время для введения налога на углерод

ВАШИНГТОН – За последние несколько десятилетий, цены на нефть существенно колебались – от $10 до $140 за баррель – создавая проблемы как производителям, так и потребителям. Однако, политикам эти колебания дают возможность для продвижения ключевых глобальных целей – отражающих Цели Устойчивого Развития, принятые в сентябре прошлого года и соглашение по климату, достигнутое в Париже, в декабре – на смягчение последствий изменения климата и построение более устойчивой экономики.

Последние колебания цен на нефть, напоминают классическую модель паутины микроэкономической теории. Высокие цены стимулируют увеличение потока инвестиций в добычу нефти. Но, учитывая большой временной разрыв между разведкой и эксплуатацией, и время, пока новая производственная мощность фактически станет доступной, замещение уже произошло, и спрос часто не оправдывает имеющееся предложение. В тот момент, цены падают, и разведка и инвестиции также снижаются, включая цены на заменители нефти. Когда развивается новый дефицит, цены снова начинают расти, и цикл повторяется.

Цикл будет продолжаться, другие факторы – такие, как неуклонное снижение стоимости на возобновляемую энергию и сдвиг в сторону менее энергоемких производственных процессов – означают, что он, вероятно, вращается в пределах низкого диапазона. В любом случае, рост цен неизбежен.

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