Flooded suburban neighborhood

Die drei Ängste, die die Weltmärkte zu Fall bringen

LONDON – Der Januar wird üblicherweise als guter Monat für die Aktienmärkte betrachtet, da den Investmentfonds neue Gelder zufließen und sich die steuerlich motivierten Verkäufe zum Jahresende hin abgeschwächt haben. Obwohl die Daten über Investitionsrenditen in den Vereinigten Staaten zeigen, dass die Profite im Januar kaum höher sind als im Monatsdurchschnitt, war die diesjährige Schwäche der Aktienmärkte angesichts des verbreiteten Glaubens an einen bullishen „Januar-Effekt“ um so schockierender.

Aber auch wenn die Pessimisten manchmal die Magie des Januar überbewerten, haben sie diesmal nicht ganz unrecht. Laut der Statistiker von Reuters begann dieses Jahr mit dem größten wöchentlichen Rückgang der Wall Street in über einem Jahrhundert, und der Monatsrückgang des Weltindex MSCI von 8% macht diesen Januar schlechter als 96% aller ausgewerteten Monate. Wie besorgt sollten wir also über die Weltwirtschaft sein?

Die Marktpsychologie scheint momentan von drei Ängsten beeinflusst zu werden: China, Öl und die Angst vor einer Rezession (in den USA oder weltweit).

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