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تحليل انحدار العولمة

برينستون ــ كانت النبرة الشرسة التي يستخدمها الرئيس الأميركي دونالد ترمب ومستشاروه دائما في الحديث عن التجارة والهجرة سببا في دفع بعض المراقبين إلى التساؤل: هل أصبح عصر العولمة الحالي عُرضة للخطر؟ إذا كان الأمر كذلك فسوف ينشأ سؤال أشد ارتباطا بموضوعنا هذا: هل تكون النهاية مصحوبة بالعنف؟

أصبحت أسواق الأسهم شديدة التوتر والعصبية على نحو متزايد، نظرا لذكريات من زمن مضى عندما دُفِع بالتكامل الاقتصادي الدولي في الاتجاه المعاكس. والآن ربما تتسبب الحروب التجارية أو الصراعات العسكرية في تفكيك العلاقات التجارية المتبادلة المعقدة التي حققت الرخاء منذ الحرب العالمية الثانية.

في فترات سابقة من تراجع العولمة، كانت أحداث مثل الحرب العالمية الأولى أو الانهيار المالي في عام 1929 تتسبب في تعطيل تدفقات التجارة، والتمويل، والبشر، والتي كانت في السابق تربط بين الدول. وكانت إحدى نتائج هذه الأزمات أن تحولت الجنسية والمواطنة إلى عنصرين رئيسيين في الحياة السياسية والاجتماعية.

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