三种危机的三种解决办法

归属银行和其他金融机构所有、或构成借款人金融质押的大量不动产价格骤然下降引发了一场大规模的金融危机。用何种方法解决取决于在三种模式之中是哪一种导致了不动产价格骤降。

第一种——也是“危害最小”——的一种模式是投资者拒绝以正常的价格购买不动产并不是因为他们对经济基本面产生了怀疑,而是因为他们害怕其他人会产生恐慌,从而迫使所有人都以极低的价格出售。这种危机模式的解决办法——这属于对金融系统丧失信心所导致的流动性危机——是竭力确保有现金债务的银行及其他金融机构能够以从其他机构或央行借贷的方式获得所需的流动款项。

这是沃尔特·巴基霍特一个多世纪以前提出的原则:使市场恢复平静需要中央银行以罚息利率向所有陷入困境的金融机构借款,前提是这些机构能够在常规状态下提供合理的质押。一旦人人都相信,无论其他人如何恐慌,金融机构也没有必要以亏损的价格出售不动产,恐慌就会逐渐消退。而罚息利率意味着金融机构无法从使它们陷入流动性短缺的投资行为中获益——也由此培养出防止未来再次发生类似紧急状况的动机。

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