Jon Krause

Esos caprichosos fondos de riqueza soberana

NUEVA YORK – Hace dos años, los fondos de riqueza soberana (FRS) eran los cucos de las finanzas mundiales. Luego llegó la crisis financiera global, y las preocupaciones que inspiraban parecieron desvanecerse. Ahora que la crisis está cediendo, los temores por los FRS y su comportamiento están regresando.

A los FRS les gusta definirse a sí mismos como vehículos de inversión políticamente independientes y con una motivación comercial. Pero los últimos dos años han demostrado que, en una crisis, no son inmunes a las presiones políticas para que vuelvan a concentrar sus asignaciones de carteras en inversiones domésticas. Esta tendencia en tiempos de reveses económicos sugiere que los FRS no son los accionistas estables y de largo plazo de las firmas extranjeras que ellos (y algunos analistas) dicen que son.

En los años posteriores al 2000 pero antes de que estallara la crisis financiera, la proporción de inversiones de capital de los FRS asignadas a mercados extranjeros había estado creciendo, hasta alcanzar un pico de 90% durante el segundo trimestre de 2008. En cambio, en el segundo semestre de 2008 se hizo evidente un claro repliegue de los FRS hacia los mercados domésticos. De hecho, a medida que la crisis financiera se propagó a los mercados emergentes que tienen la mayor parte de los FRS, la proporción de inversiones extranjeras dentro de las carteras de los FRS cayó a aproximadamente el 60%.

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