Jon Krause

Die unbeständigen Staatsfonds

NEW YORK – Vor zwei Jahren waren Staatsfonds das Schreckgespenst der weltweiten Finanzwirtschaft. Dann kam die globale Finanzkrise, und die Sorgen darüber schienen zu verfliegen. Nun, da die Krise abebbt, kehren die Befürchtungen über die Staatsfonds und ihr Verhalten zurück.

Staatsfonds präsentieren sich gern als politisch unabhängige, kommerziell motivierte Anlageinstrumente. Doch haben die letzten zwei Jahre bewiesen, dass sie in einer Krise nicht gegen den politischen Druck gefeit sind, den Schwerpunkt ihrer Portfolios auf Investitionen im eigenen Land zu verlagern. Diese Tendenz in Zeiten des Konjunkturrückgangs legt nahe, dass Staatsfonds für ausländische Firmen nicht die langfristigen, stabilen Aktionäre sind, für die sie (und manche Kommentatoren) sich ausgeben.

In den Jahren nach 2000, aber vor dem Anfang der Finanzkrise, war der Anteil der Kapitalinvestitionen von Staatsfonds in ausländische Märkte gestiegen und erreichte im zweiten Quartal 2008 einen Spitzenwert von 90 %. In der zweiten Hälfte 2008 wurde jedoch ein eindeutiger Rückzug der Staatsfonds in die einheimischen Märkte erkennbar. Als sich die Finanzkrise auf die Schwellenländer ausbreitete, die die meisten Staatsfonds halten, fiel der Anteil der Auslandsinvestitionen innerhalb der Staatsfondsportfolios auf etwa 60 %.

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