Es hora de pensar lo impensable en Europa

NUEVA YORK – Para resolver una crisis en la que lo imposible se convirtió en posible, hay que pensar lo impensable. La solución de las crisis de deuda soberana en Europa exige estar preparados para la posibilidad de que Grecia, Portugal y posiblemente Irlanda se declaren en cesación de pagos e incluso que abandonen la eurozona.

Partiendo de este supuesto, se deberían tomar medidas para prevenir una debacle financiera en toda la eurozona. La primera debe ser proteger los depósitos bancarios: si un euro depositado en un banco griego se perdiera como consecuencia del impago y el abandono de la eurozona, un euro depositado en un banco italiano valdría inmediatamente menos que otro depositado en un banco alemán u holandés, y esto provocaría una corrida sobre los bancos de los países deficitarios.

Además, en los países que entren en cesación de pagos será necesario mantener algunos bancos en funcionamiento, para evitar que se produzca un colapso económico. Paralelamente, habrá que recapitalizar el sistema bancario europeo y colocarlo bajo supervisión europea (en vez de nacional). Por último, se deberá proteger del contagio a los bonos públicos emitidos por los otros países deficitarios de la eurozona. (Los dos últimos requisitos son válidos incluso si ningún país se declara en cesación).

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