Theresa May announces election Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

La apuesta electoral de Theresa May

LONDRES – Un año electoral europeo que ya era trascendente, ahora lo es más. Mientras crece la inquietud por la inminente elección presidencial en Francia y los alemanes se preparan para votar en septiembre, ahora la primera ministra británica Theresa May llamó a una elección anticipada para el 8 de junio. El resultado influirá seriamente no sólo en las negociaciones para el Brexit, sino también en la supervivencia misma del Reino Unido.

Aunque últimamente la política británica se ha vuelto impredecible, es de prever que el Partido Conservador de May ganará la elección con facilidad. Una encuesta reciente de YouGov/Times predijo que los conservadores recibirán un 44% de los votos, contra 23% del Partido Laborista, 12% de los liberaldemócratas y 10% del Partido de la Independencia del RU. Como el sistema electoral británico es uninominal, es probable que los conservadores consigan una amplia mayoría de más de cien escaños en la Cámara de los Comunes (contra los catorce de la actualidad).

May debe el cargo de primera ministra a la mayoría parlamentaria que obtuvo David Cameron en 2015, antes de renunciar como consecuencia del referendo por el Brexit. Pero si el resultado de la elección da la razón a los encuestadores, May tendrá un mandato popular considerablemente más fuerte que el que tuvo Cameron.

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