Corbyn at polls Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

La trampa de la elección anticipada

LONDRES – La pérdida de mayoría parlamentaria que sufrió el Partido Conservador en la elección anticipada del Reino Unido dejó otra vez mal parados a analistas políticos, encuestadores y otros pronosticadores. Fue un resultado que pocos esperaban, y se están proponiendo diversas explicaciones.

Por ejemplo, muchos han señalado que Theresa May, la primera ministra conservadora, hizo una campaña pobre, y que los modelos de los encuestadores subestimaron la participación electoral de los votantes más jóvenes. Al mismo tiempo, Jeremy Corbyn (líder del opositor Partido Laborista) consiguió mostrarse capaz y confiado. Pero es posible que todas estas explicaciones, que apuntan estrictamente al desarrollo de la campaña, sean irrelevantes.

Hay una explicación mejor surgida del campo de la psicología. Si los analistas hubieran prestado atención a una teoría bien establecida de la psicología de las elecciones anticipadas, habrían podido prever el resultado de la elección en el Reino Unido. Según investigaciones del politólogo Alastair Smith (de la Universidad de Nueva York), quien examinó datos de encuestas y resultados de elecciones generales en Gran Bretaña desde 1945, cuando el primer ministro llama a elección anticipada es frecuente que el tiro le salga por la culata.

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