Corbyn at polls Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

Die Falle der vorgezogenen Neuwahlen

LONDON – Die britischen Tories haben nach den vorgezogenen Neuwahlen ihre absolute Mehrheit im Parlament verloren. Und wieder lagen politische Experten, Umfragen und Prognosen spektakulär falsch. Wieder werden die unterschiedlichsten Erklärungen für ein Ergebnis geliefert, das keiner erwartet hat.

Viele weisen beispielsweise darauf hin, dass die konservative Premierministerin Theresa May einen schlechten Wahlkampf geführt habe und dass die Umfragen die Wahlbeteiligung unter jungen Leuten unterschätzt haben. Gleichzeitig habe es Jeremy Corbyn, der Oppositionsführer der Labour-Partei geschafft, kompetent und zuversichtlich zu erscheinen. Aber diese Erklärungen sind irrelevant, denn sie konzentrieren sich lediglich darauf, wie der Wahlkampf geführt wurde.

Eine bessere Erklärung kommt aus der Psychologie. Hätten die Experten einer anerkannten Theorie über die Psychologie vorgezogener Neuwahlen Aufmerksamkeit geschenkt, hätten sie das Ergebnis der Wahlen im Vereinigten Königreich voraussehen können. Alastair Smith, Politikwissenschaftler an der Universität von New York, hat Umfrageergebnisse und tatsächliche Ergebnisse von britischen Parlamentswahlen bis 1945 zurückverfolgt. Er kam zu dem Schluss, dass die Entscheidungen von Premierministern, Neuwahlen vorzuziehen, oft das Gegenteil von dem bewirken, was sie bewirken sollen.

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