Corbyn at polls Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

临时大选是个“坑”

伦敦—保守党在英国的临时大选中失去了议会多数地位,这证明政治专家、民调机构和其他预言家再次失算。而再一次,人们拿出各种理由解释几乎没人预料到的结果。

比如,很多人指出,保守党首相梅竞选不力,而民调机构的模型低估了年轻选民的投票率。与此同时,反对党工党党首科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)成功地表现出有能力和有自信。但这些解释也许都没有切中要害,因为他们狭隘地关注竞选如何展开。

更好的解释来自心理学。如果专家花点精力关注关于临时选举的心理学的众所周知的理论,就可以预见到英国选举的结果。据纽约大学政治学家阿来斯塔尔·史密斯(Alastair Smith,他考察了1945年以来的英国大选民调数据和结果)的研究,首相提前举行选举的决定常常适得其反。

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