Corbyn at polls Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

临时大选是个“坑”

伦敦—保守党在英国的临时大选中失去了议会多数地位,这证明政治专家、民调机构和其他预言家再次失算。而再一次,人们拿出各种理由解释几乎没人预料到的结果。

比如,很多人指出,保守党首相梅竞选不力,而民调机构的模型低估了年轻选民的投票率。与此同时,反对党工党党首科尔宾(Jeremy Corbyn)成功地表现出有能力和有自信。但这些解释也许都没有切中要害,因为他们狭隘地关注竞选如何展开。

更好的解释来自心理学。如果专家花点精力关注关于临时选举的心理学的众所周知的理论,就可以预见到英国选举的结果。据纽约大学政治学家阿来斯塔尔·史密斯(Alastair Smith,他考察了1945年以来的英国大选民调数据和结果)的研究,首相提前举行选举的决定常常适得其反。

To continue reading, please log in or enter your email address.

To read this article from our archive, please log in or register now. After entering your email, you'll have access to two free articles every month. For unlimited access to Project Syndicate, subscribe now.

required

By proceeding, you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy, which describes the personal data we collect and how we use it.

Log in

http://prosyn.org/8dBatcg/zh;

Cookies and Privacy

We use cookies to improve your experience on our website. To find out more, read our updated cookie policy and privacy policy.