Corbyn at polls Justin Tallis/AFP/Getty Images

فخ الانتخابات المبكرة

لندن - اٍن فقدان حزب المحافظين لغالبيته البرلمانية في الانتخابات المبكرة والمفاجئة التي جرت في المملكة المتحدة أثبت أن النقاد السياسيين، واستطلاعات الرأي، وغيرهم من المتنبئين على خطأ مرة أخرى. ومرة أخرى، يجري تقديم تفسيرات مختلفة لنتائج كانت متوقعة.

على سبيل المثال، أشار كثيرون إلى أن حملة تيريزا ماي، رئيسة الوزراء المحافظة، كانت حملة سيئة، وأن نماذج استطلاعات الرأي قللت من إقبال الناخبين الأصغر سنا. وفي الوقت نفسه، تمكن جيريمي كوربين، زعيم حزب العمل المعارض، من إثبات كفاءته وثقته. لكن هذه التفسيرات قد لا تكون ذات صلة، لأنها تركز بشكل صارم على كيفية إجراء الحملة.

التفسير الأفضل يأتي من مجال علم النفس. لو أن النقاد قد أولوا اهتماما لنظرية راسخة حول سيكولوجية الانتخابات المبكرة، لكان في استطاعتهم توقع نتائج الانتخابات في المملكة المتحدة. ووفقا للبحث الذي أجراه عالم السياسة في جامعة نيويورك ألستير سميث، الذي فحص بيانات الاقتراع العام للانتخابات العامة والنتائج التي يعود تاريخها إلى عام 1945، فإن قرارات رؤساء الوزراء بإجراء انتخابات مبكرة غالبا ما تعطي نتائج عكسية.

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