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Theresa Mays Brexit-Problem

LONDON – Die britische Premierministerin Theresa May brauchte einem Bericht zufolge bei einem jüngsten Treffen mit ihrer vermeintlichen Verbündeten Angela Merkel „eine Weile, um sich zu fassen“. Die Bundeskanzlerin lehnte Mays Vorschlag einer „Nebenabsprache“ über in Großbritannien wohnhafte EU-Bürger vor der offiziellen Einleitung der Brexit-Verhandlungen unter Berufung auf Artikel 50 des Vertrags von Lissabon kategorisch ab.

Nach einer anfänglichen Phase der Arroganz und Euphorie im Gefolge des Referendums ist immer deutlicher geworden, dass Mays Regierung die zu erwartende Reaktion der EU auf einen britischen Austritt aus dem Block völlig falsch eingeschätzt hat. Es sieht nun so aus, als dürfte das Vereinigte Königreich immer schneller von Misserfolg zu Misserfolg stolpern.

Mays Dilemma wurzelt in der Tatsache, dass das „Leave“-Bündnis, obwohl es bestimmte konservative Werte teilt, aus zwei nicht kompatiblen Gruppierungen besteht: den überwiegend wohlhabenden Rentnern der Mittelschicht, die die EU verlassen möchten, weil sie sie für zu bürokratisch und protektionistisch halten, und Wählern überwiegend aus der Arbeiterschaft, die den Austritt wollen, weil sie mehr Protektionismus befürworten.

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