理性悲观之年

纽约——最近,有人不无讽刺地说,2011年最好的事情大概莫过于会好于2012年。同样地,尽管人们对美国的政治僵局已经有了诸多疑虑,但对美国和全世界来说,事情还没有到最坏的地步:共和党还可以将他们的紧缩+再分配计划扩展到富人阶层。自动削减在2013年之前是不会发生的,这意味着2012年的负担会略微减轻一些。

2011年的两件更积极的事情:美国似乎终于认识到富人阶层和其他阶层——即顶层1%和剩余的99%——之间令人咋舌的差距了。此外,青年反对运动——从阿拉伯之春到西班牙的“愤怒”青年和“占领华尔街”的美国青年——明白无误地显示,资本主义体系大有问题。

但是,最有可能的是,2011年美国和欧洲的早已是众人皆知、且迄今为止治理大为不善的经济和政治问题将在2012年继续恶化。任何对明年的预测均以不同寻常的程度取决于政治——取决于美国僵局以什么结果收场以及欧洲领导人应对欧元危机的能力。经济预测已经够困难的了,但在进行政治预测时,我们的水晶球里更是一团迷雾。

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