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Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February has stoked fears that Chinese President Xi Jinping is plotting his own aggression against Taiwan. The United States and its NATO allies seem to be “all in” on repelling Russia’s invasion, but how far will the US be willing to go to defend Taiwan, and has its longstanding policy of “strategic ambiguity” on that question really run its course?
纽约——70年前的这个月在慕尼黑，英国首相内维尔·张伯伦签署了一份文件，允许德国侵占捷克斯洛伐克的一大片土地。所谓“慕尼黑”协定将被看作是对张伯伦口中“我们几乎一无所知的遥远国度”的无耻背叛。可那个时候很多人并不这么想。
张伯伦相信英国并未准备好同纳粹德国交战，因此外交和妥协是更安全的选择，这种看法在当时的欧洲人中很有市场，这些人亲身体验过战争带来的可怕后果。尽管如此，张伯伦仍然在历史上被视为懦夫，而他对纳粹德国的“绥靖政策”常被指责为鼓励了希特勒其后发动的征服欧洲其它国家的战争。
张伯伦也许是错了。英国和法国本来可以阻止德国。“慕尼黑，1938”，是民主国家历史上谨慎外交犯下错误的一个罕见先例。历史需要一个嗜血的浪漫英雄，愿意以民族命运为赌注参与作战，“无论付出什么样的代价”，用温斯顿·丘吉尔自己的话说。
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