日本的错误增长战略

美国剑桥—以安倍晋三为首相的日本新政府大概要搬起石头砸自己的脚了。为了提振经济增长,当局可能会破坏其一大优势:国债和私人借贷的低利率。果真如此的话,在安倍晋三任期结束时,日本所面临的条件极有可能会比现在更加糟糕。

10年期日本国债利率现在还不到1%,为世界最低,尽管日本国债水平和预算赤字水平极高。事实上,如今日本债务量大约在GDP的230%,比希腊(175%)更高,几乎是意大利(125%)的两倍。年度预算赤字接近GDP的10%,比任何欧元区国家都高。在名义GDP停滞不前的情况下,如此赤字造成债务/GDP比率每年升高10%。

日本政府之所以能够获得如此低的利率,是因为十多年来国内物价一直在下降,而日元则对其他主要货币升值。国内通缩意味着日本债券的真实利率高于名义利率。日元升值则提高了日本债券相对于其他货币债券的收益率。

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