El peor de todos los mundos

COPENHAGUE – ¿Han notado que los activistas ambientales casi inevitablemente dicen que no sólo el calentamiento global está sucediendo y a un nivel grave, sino que también lo que estamos viendo es peor de lo que se esperaba?        

Es curioso, porque cualquiera que razonablemente entienda cómo procede la ciencia esperaría que, a medida que refinamos nuestro conocimiento, iremos descubriendo que las cosas a veces son peores y a veces mejores de lo que esperábamos, y que la proporción más probable sería 50-50. Los activistas ambientales, en cambio, casi invariablemente lo ven como 100-0.

Si regularmente nos sorprendemos sólo en una dirección, si nuestros modelos hacen caso omiso de una realidad que es cada vez peor, no es un buen presagio para nuestro abordaje científico. De hecho, podría decirse que si nuestros modelos constantemente entienden algo mal, probablemente se deba a que los modelos están equivocados. Y si no podemos confiar en nuestros modelos, no podemos saber qué acción tomar si queremos marcar una diferencia.

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