Le pire des mondes

COPENHAGUE – Avez-vous remarqué que les militants pour la protection de l’environnement affirment presque invariablement que non seulement que le réchauffement climatique existe et qu’il est négatif, mais aussi que ce que nous voyons est encore pire que les prévisions ?

C’est très curieux, car n’importe quelle appréhension raisonnable des techniques scientifiques devrait s’attendre à ce que, à mesure que nos connaissances s’affinent, nous trouvions que les choses sont parfois pires et parfois meilleures que nos attentes, et que la distribution la plus probable est de 50-50. Les militants écologistes, en revanche, les voient invariablement comme un rapport 100-0.

Si nous sommes régulièrement surpris dans un seul sens, si nos modèles sont aveuglés par une réalité qui ne fait que s’aggraver, voilà qui ne parle pas en faveur de notre approche scientifique. En effet, on peut dire que si les modèles font sans arrêt des erreurs, c’est sans doute parce qu’ils ne sont pas valables. Et si nous ne pouvons pas nous fier à nos modèles, impossible de savoir quelle politique envisager pour changer la situation.

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