全世界最坏的情况

哥本哈根——你是否关注过环保主义者是怎样几乎众口一词地说不仅全球正在变暖而且情况很坏,而且我们所看到的问题甚至比预想中还要糟糕?

这种说法非常奇怪,因为有关科学发展的任何合理理解都会认为,随着我们不断掌握更多的知识,我们会发现问题有时会比预想中差,而有时却会比预想中好,而最有可能的分布状况大概是百分之50比50。可是环保主义者们却几乎一成不变地只看到百分之100比0。

如果事态向着某个方向的发展不断让我们感到惊讶,如果我们的模型在不断恶化的事实面前总显得措手不及,这对于我们的科学研究来讲绝不是什么好事。事实上,我们可以说如果模型总是出现错误,那么可能因为模型本身发生了错误。而如果我们不能相信模型,那么我们就无法了解如果想改变现状,应该采取什么样的政策措施。

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