世界的暴走列车

剑桥-全球经济是一辆正在放缓的暴走列车,但是放缓的速度还不够快。这是短期内油价、金属价格以及食品价格的惊人涨幅对我们发出的呼喊。全球经济在过去六年里壮观而具有历史性的繁荣将要撞上南墙。不幸的是,似乎没有人-在亚洲和美国肯定没人,愿意咬紧牙关挺过去,并帮助指挥必要的对持久的分增长趋势有协调的退却,而这对新商品的供应和替代品接上来是很必要的。

与此相反,各国政府却奋力延长这些不可持续的繁荣,从而进一步推高商品价格,并且增加了那种“千载难逢”的经济和金融混乱的风险。虽然所有这些不一定会有一个可怕的结局,但是大多数地区的政策制定者将不得不开始踩刹车,而不是去揿加速器。

不要指望美国在总统选举年能有领袖风范。相反, 美国政府已经分发退税支票,以使美国人可以尽情购物,并且现在国会还在讨论为此做更多的事情。

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