Chris Van Es

Системы в опасности

ЖЕНЕВА – Неспособность адаптироваться к изменению климата, постоянные экстремальные погодные условия, серьезный системный финансовый крах – вот только три из 50 основных рисков, мониторинг которых осуществляется каждый год в докладе «Глобальные риски» Всемирного экономического форума. Вполне естественно, что между ними есть связь, особенно после «штормового» падения Уолл-стрит в октябре прошлого года. На самом деле, доклад напоминает нам о том, что в нашем взаимозависимом мире системы неизбежно влияют друг на друга многочисленными способами.

Что более важно, доклад предупреждает об опасности падения нескольких систем одновременно. Двумя мировыми фундаментальными системами, например, являются экономика и экология; их взаимодействие лежит в основе первого из трех тематических исследований рисков в докладе этого года.

1000 экспертов, которые ответили на вопросы ежегодного исследования восприятия рисков, проводимого ВЭФ, на котором основан доклад, считают адаптацию к климатическим изменениям основной экологической проблемой ближайшего десятилетия. Это отражает более широкие перемены в отношении к климатическим изменениям и растущее признание того, что мы обречены на некоторое изменение температуры по всему миру и должны адаптироваться на местном уровне – например, усилить наши критичные системы инфраструктур, чтобы повысить их устойчивость к экстремальным погодным условиям.

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