Paul Lachine

El tambaleante oeste

CHARLESTON, CAROLINA DEL SUR – A principios de la crisis financiera, un importante inversor en mercados emergentes me dijo: «Esta no es una crisis financiera mundial, sino semimundial». Tenía razón: era en realidad una crisis de los Estados Unidos, Europa y Japón. Entre los mercados emergentes, solo Europa del Este se vio fuertemente afectada. De hecho, la crisis señala la toma de la delantera por parte de las economías emergentes respecto de los países occidentales más importantes, con enormes consecuencias mundiales en términos de equilibrio de poder, finanzas, política y economía.

La crisis de la deuda soberana en la zona del euro parece haber sido la crisis financiera peor gestionada desde la cesación de pagos de Argentina en 2001. Los líderes de la Unión Europea y la zona del euro han logrado desacreditarse fuertemente a sí mismos. Europa necesita cambios institucionales mucho más fundamentales que los discutidos hasta el momento.

El Fondo Monetario Internacional nunca ha apostado sumas tan grandes a un único país como lo ha hecho con Grecia. Como resultado, el FMI, custodio de parte de las reservas internacionales mantenidas por los bancos centrales del mundo, se expone a perder decenas de millardos de dólares.

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