Paul Lachine

Шаткий Запад

ЧАРЛСТОН, ЮЖНАЯ КАРОЛИНА. На ранних стадиях финансового кризиса один из основных инвесторов в развивающиеся рынки сказал мне: «Это не глобальный, а полуглобальный финансовый кризис». Он был прав: это действительно был кризис Соединенных Штатов, Европы и Японии. Среди развивающихся рынков только Восточная Европа подверглась сильному удару. Действительно, кризис ознаменовал перехват инициативы развивающимися экономиками у основных стран Запада, с огромными последствиями для глобальной власти, финансов, политики и экономики.

Кризис суверенных долгов в еврозоне, по-видимому, был самым плохо управляемым со времен дефолта Аргентины в 2001 г. Европейский союз и руководство еврозоны серьезно дискредитировали себя. Европа требует институциональных изменений, которые намного более фундаментальны, чем что-либо обсуждаемое до сих пор.

Международный валютный фонд никогда еще не одалживал одной отдельно взятой стране такие огромные суммы, какие он сейчас предоставляет Греции. В результате МВФ, попечитель некоторых международных резервов, которыми владеют мировые центральные банки, рискует потерять десятки миллиардов долларов.

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