Paul Lachine

La politica monetaria dell’Occidente in stile “coppa di punch”

TILBURG – Ci sono dei momenti in cui è doveroso pensare ed agire al di fuori del comune. E ci sono poi dei momenti in cui bisogna tornare alla normalità. Le principali banche centrali dell’occidente, la Banca d’Inghilterra, la Banca Centrale Europea e la Riserva Federale degli Stati Uniti, dovrebbero prendere a cuore questi principi. Per usare le parole dell’ex Presidente della Riserva Federale, William McChesney Martin,: “E’ compito delle banche centrali togliere la coppa di punch nel bel mezzo della festa”, ma la Riserva Federale non solo ha recentemente lasciato la coppa di punch a disposizione, ma l’ha anche riempita.

Durante il picco della crisi del 2008, le principali banche centrali mondiali hanno giustamente impiegato misure straordinarie. Senza dubbio, in alcuni casi, hanno esagerato, ad esempio con la seconda tornata del cosiddetto “alleggerimento quantitativo” negli Stati Uniti, ma in generale la risposta sembra essere stata adeguata.

Più di due anni dopo la situazione è cambiata. La ripresa economica non è eccezionale, ma è pur sempre una ripresa. Quasi tutte le economie sviluppate si sono lasciate alle spalle la recessione, mentre il pericolo dell’inflazione è praticamente scomparso. La Banca Centrale svizzera si è recentemente allineata a questo contesto, mentre la BCE sta ora affrontando il livello elevato d’inflazione invece della deflazione all’interno dell’eurozona. L’inflazione sta invece rapidamente aumentando e diventando sempre più un problema economico e sociale nelle economie emergenti, come Brasile, Cina, India e Corea del Sud.

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