Paul Lachine

El titán fatigado

PARÍS – La actual “guerra de divisas” que probablemente dominará las discusiones en la próxima cumbre del G-20 en Seúl se tiene que analizar en el contexto del nuevo panorama de poder –un panorama que se ha transformado, tan sólo en dos años, debido a la primera crisis de la economía globalizada.

Las consecuencias económicas de la crisis han dejado a una serie de países desarrollados en una depresión severa y luchando para lograr una recuperación saludable. En contraste, los países con mercados emergentes, después de un breve retroceso, han logrado volver a encender sus motores de crecimiento y están avanzando con toda fuerza acumulando tasas de crecimiento impresionantes.

También han habido consecuencias monetarias y financieras. Aunque ninguna moneda reúne aún las condiciones para remplazar al dólar como moneda de transacción y reservas mundiales, “este privilegio exorbitante”, como señaló Charles de Gaulle, ha sido objeto de ataques furtivos. En marzo de 2010, el grupo de la ASEAN+3, que incluye a China, Japón y Corea del Sur, estableció un fondo de reserva de 120,000 millones de dólares en virtud de la denominada “Iniciativa Chiang Mai.” Esta vez, a diferencia de 1997, los Estados Unidos ni siquiera intentaron atacar este “Fondo de divisas asiático” embrionario.

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