Paul Lachine

Der müde Titan

PARIS – Der sich anbahnende „Währungskrieg“, der wahrscheinlich die Gespräche beim bevorstehenden G-20-Gipfel in Seoul beherrschen wird, muss vor dem Hintergrund der neuen Machtlandschaft bewertet werden – einer Landschaft, die durch die erste Krise der globalisierten Wirtschaft in nur zwei Jahren völlig verändert wurde.

Die wirtschaftlichen Folgen der Krise haben mehrere Industrieländer steil abstürzen lassen, und jetzt strampeln sie sich ab, um eine gesunde Erholung herbeizuführen. Dagegen ist es den Schwellenländern nach einem kurzen Einbruch gelungen, ihre Wachstumsmotoren wieder zu zünden, sodass sie nun mit voller Kraft voraussegeln und beeindruckende Wachstumsraten hinlegen.

Es gab auch finanzielle und geldpolitische Konsequenzen. Obwohl bisher noch keine Währung dafür in Frage kommt, den Dollar als Reserve- und Transaktionswährung der Welt abzulösen, ist dieses „unverschämte Privileg“, wie Charles de Gaulle es nannte, heimlich unter Beschuss geraten. Im März 2010 hat die Gruppe „ASEAN + 3“, zu der China, Japan und Südkorea gehören, im Rahmen der sogenannten „Chiang-Mai-Initiative“ einen Reservefonds von 120 Milliarden US-Dollar eingerichtet. Anders als 1997 versuchten die Vereinigten Staaten dieses Mal erst gar nicht, diesen neu entstehenden „Asiatischen Währungsfonds“ zu torpedieren.

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