Slabiny silného dolaru

Psaní o směnných kurzech s sebou vždy nese jisté riziko. Směnný kurz měny sice klesá, ale do doby, než článek vyjde, může klidně začít stoupat. Ovšem otázka, jak bychom na směnné kurzy a jejich náležité spravování měli nahlížet, ta je neměnná.

Čili dnes nejde jen o to, že dolar klesá, ale spíš o to, co s tím američtí státní úředníci hodlají dělat. Přímočarý Paul O'Neill, americký ministr financí, naznačuje, že Spojené státy toho na podporu dolaru moc neudělají, ba ani nemohou udělat. Mnozí lidé jeho komentáře kritizují jako odklon od politiky silného dolaru, kterou razila administrativa Billa Clintona.

Jednou z povinností ekonomických vůdců je mýtit ekonomické mýty - rozhodně ne je budovat. Politika ,,silného dolaru" je takového ekonomického mýtu zvlášť do očí bijícím příkladem. Jako by totiž naznačovala, že americké ministerstvo financí může a je ochotno udržovat silný dolar a že silný dolar je pro USA výhodný. Když jsem byl předsedou rady ekonomických poradců prezidenta Clintona, často se mě ptali, zda politiku silného dolaru podporuji. Já jsem vždy odpovídal, že věřím v politiku ,,vyváženého dolaru".

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