El desplome del Estado árabe

BOSTON – La llamada “primavera árabe” produjo una oleada de esperanza entre quienes propugnan la democratización de los regímenes autoritarios del mundo árabe o luchan por ella. Ahora, a raíz de los cambios de dirigentes en Túnez, Egipto, Libia y el Yemen y con una brutal y encarnizada guerra civil en Siria y en medio de una situación cada vez más tensa en Bahrein, el Sudán, Jordania y el Iraq, se habla mucho de un cambio importante –y esperanza de mejora– en la naturaleza y las perspectivas del Estado árabe.

Pero la esperanza –“una cosa con plumas”, como dijo la poetisa americana Emily Dickinson– presenta con frecuencia pocas semejanzas con las realidades en el terreno. De hecho, volviendo la vista a la tierra, la belleza de la “primavera árabe” parece haber dado paso a un invierno casi insoportable.

Pese al optimismo infundido hace dos años, las realidades políticas siniestras pueden estar volviendo el sistema de los Estados-nación incompatible con el nuevo mundo árabe que está surgiendo. A consecuencia de ello, la pregunta sobre cómo podrá la región mantener la estabilidad sin Estados-nación estables está cobrando un carácter candente.

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