La guerra contra el terrorismo después de Irak

Las deslumbrantes victorias militares en Afganistán e Irak pueden llevarnos a conclusiones equivocadas acerca de la guerra contra el terrorismo. Si fuera meramente un problema de un par de estados canallas, podríamos pensar que se está avanzando. Pero el progreso tecnológico está poniendo en manos de individuos y grupos antisociales capacidades de destrucción que antaño eran prácticamente exclusivas de los gobiernos y ejércitos.

Incluso si la eliminación de todos los incidentes terroristas resulta ser una tarea imposible, la reducción de su frecuencia y potencial letal significará una gran diferencia en su impacto sobre nuestras sociedades. El mundo necesita una estrategia de múltiples facetas que deslegitimice los ataques sobre civiles como método de conflicto; que haga que los estados lo piensen dos veces antes de proporcionar recursos o refugio a quienes usan dichos métodos; que proteja con más eficacia los objetivos que pueda haber en nuestros países; que impida el fácil acceso de los terroristas a las armas de destrucción masiva; y que reduzca los incentivos para usar el terrorismo como método.

Es posible que las medidas militares no resuelvan la mayor parte del problema, pero a veces son esenciales. No fue suficiente despojar a Al Qaeda de su refugio afgano, pero era necesario hacerlo. En la última década ha disminuido la cantidad de estados que protegen el terrorismo. La acción diplomática, respaldada por la amenaza militar, puede reducir aún más este número. Algunos estados fracasados están tan caóticamente organizados que no se puede evitar que ofrezcan refugio a los terroristas. En tales casos, puede ser importante la ayuda militar; en otros, puede ser necesaria la intervención.

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