El enemigo virtual

Han pasado cinco años desde los ataques terroristas a Nueva York y Washington en septiembre de 2001, y sin embargo parece que quienes diseñan las políticas han aprendido muy poco sobre el funcionamiento de las células terroristas y sus debilidades. La administración Bush todavía usa la frase “la guerra contra el terrorismo” y se comporta como si fuera verdaderamente una guerra ordinaria en la que un gobierno lucha contra otro. Con todo, tras cinco años de esfuerzos militares, las estrategias que se basan en enfocarse en un atacante unido han empeorado la situación. Es tiempo de entender el nuevo modelo de conflicto emergente.

Para hacer que el paradigma de la "guerra" cuadre, la administración Bush se refiere a al-Qaeda como un enemigo dirigido centralmente. De hecho, actualmente no hay alguien que planeé o financie de manera central las actividades terroristas. Los ataques en Madrid, Londres y Bali, así como diferentes operaciones frustradas en Estados Unidos e Inglaterra, se caracterizaron por su organización dispersa. Surgieron complots generados independientemente y se utilizaron recursos ad hoc , que frecuentemente estaban dentro del país objetivo del ataque.

Esas operaciones pequeñas también carecían de un diseño interno común. Los motivos terroristas varían de célula en célula, incluso de una persona a otra. Los individuos pueden participar por ganancias y poder, o por razones políticas y religiosas, mientras que otros participan por odio o por la emoción. Además, a medida de que se avanza en la cadena de la organización, o cuando se cambia de una célula a otra, hay grandes diferencias en lo que se refiere a los riesgos, las recompensas y los imperativos. Los modelos militares convencionales están orientados a decapitar algo que, en este caso, no tiene cabeza.

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