虚拟敌人

2001年9月对纽约、华盛顿的恐怖袭击已经过去5年了,但决策者们似乎对恐怖组织的运作方式及其弱点鲜有了解。布什政府还在使用“反恐战争”的词汇,他们的所作所为就像真的在打一场政府和政府之间的常规战争。但5年过去了,以单一侵略者为目标的策略只能让情况越变越糟。现在该是了解新出现的冲突模式的时候了。

为了让“战争”模式合情合理,布什政府暗示基地组织是听从统一指挥的敌人。但实际上,现在恐怖活动已经没有统一的策划者和出资人。发生在马德里、伦敦和巴厘岛的恐怖袭击以及美国和英国被挫败的另外几起图谋的共同特征就是组织非常分散。这些恐怖活动无一例外地是在目标国国内独立策划,并利用了当地的特殊资源。

这些小规模行动也缺乏统一的内在目标。不同群体、甚至是不同个体的恐怖分子,其动机往往各不相同。恐怖分子个人可能是追求金钱和权力,也可能是追求政治和宗教目标,还可能是出于仇恨或想寻求刺激。此外,随着恐怖分子在组织内部地位的提升,或者从一个恐怖群体转到另一个恐怖群体,其中所涉及的风险、酬劳和必须遵守的制度也千差万别。传统军事模式这次要斩首的敌人根本就没有首级。

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