Der Wert des Unterbewertetseins

Das zentrale wirtschaftspolitische Dilemma, vor dem Schwellenländer heute stehen, ist das folgende: Einerseits erfordert ein nachhaltiges wirtschaftliches Wachstum eine wettbewerbsfähige (sprich: „unterbewertete“) Währung. Andererseits folgt auf jede gute Nachricht sofort eine Währungsaufwertung, was die Aufgabe, wettbewerbsfähig zu bleiben, deutlich erschwert.

Sie haben also endlich ein bestimmtes Gesetz von grundlegender Wichtigkeit verabschiedet? Ihre haushaltspolitisch verantwortlich handelnde politische Partei hat gerade die Wahlen gewonnen? Oder Ihre Rohstoffexporte bringen gerade richtig Geld ein? Wie schön für Sie! Bloß, dass die Währungsaufwertung, die hierauf folgt, aller Wahrscheinlichkeit einen nicht aufrecht zu erhaltenden Konsumboom auslösen, verheerenden Schaden in Ihrem Exportsektor anrichten und Ihrem Wachstumspotenzial den Saft nehmen dürfte. Erfolge bringen ihre eigene Belohnung – in Form umgehender Bestrafung!

Möglicherweise wird nun die Zentralbank auf den Währungsmärkten intervenieren, um eine Aufwertung zu verhindern. Der Preis hierfür ist eine Anhäufung ertragsarmer Auslandsdevisen und die Abkehr vom primären Ziel der Preisstabilität. Dies ist die Strategie, die Länder wie China und Argentinien verfolgen.

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