Jak hodnotné je být podhodnocen

Hlavní politické dilema, které dnes řeší rozvíjející se ekonomiky, zní takto: na jedné straně vyžaduje trvalý hospodářský růst konkurenceschopnou (rozuměj „podhodnocenou“) měnu. Na druhé straně však po jakékoliv dobré zprávě okamžitě následuje zhodnocení měny, což úkol udržet si konkurenceschopnost velmi ztěžuje.

Schválili jste konečně klíčový zákon? Vyhrála vaše fiskálně zodpovědná politická strana volby? Trefil se váš vývoz komodit do černého? Tak sláva! Zhodnocování měny, které po těchto úspěších následuje, však pravděpodobně nastartuje neudržitelný růst spotřeby, rozvrátí váš exportní sektor, vyvolá nezaměstnanost a vysaje váš růstový potenciál. Úspěch tedy s sebou nese ovoce v podobě okamžitého trestu!

V reakci na to mohou centrální banky intervenovat na měnových trzích, aby dalšímu zhodnocování zabránily i za cenu hromadění zahraničních rezerv s nízkým výnosem a odklonu od svého prvotního cíle udržovat cenovou stabilitu. Takovou strategii zvolily země jako Čína nebo Argentina.

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