估值偏低的价值

新兴市场现今所面临的首要政策困境是:一方面,持续的经济增长需要一种具有竞争力(即“估值偏低”)的货币。另一方面,在任何的好消息之后接踵而至的就是货币升值,这使得保持竞争力的任务更为艰巨。

你终于通过了一项至关重要的法律?你的具有财政责任心的政党刚刚赢得了选举?抑或的你商品出口大赚其钱?那你真行!但随之而来货币升值很可能会引发一股不可持续的消费热潮,损害你所在的出口行业、导致失业并侵蚀你的增长潜力。成功以惩罚的形式给予我们回报。

作为回应手段,各国央行可能干预货币市场以防止升值发生。其代价是吃进低回报的外汇储备并使自己偏离价格稳定性这一首要目标。这是中国和阿根廷这样的国家所遵循的战略。

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