El sospechoso usual Suspect

BERKELEY - En todo el mundo euro-atlántico, la recuperación de la recesión de 2008-2009 sigue siendo lenta y vacilante, convirtiendo en desempleo estructural lo que era un desempleo cíclico fácilmente remediable. Y lo que era un mero hipo en el proceso de acumulación de capital se ha convertido en un prolongado déficit de inversión, lo que significa menores niveles del capital y el PIB real, no solo hoy, mientras aún no se completa la recuperación, sino posiblemente por décadas.

Uno de los legados de la experiencia de Europa Occidental en la década de 1980 es una regla de oro: cada año que una menor cantidad de personas trabajando y un menor nivel de capital, resultados de una inversión en declive, deprimen la producción $100 mil millones por debajo de lo normal implica que el potencial productivo a pleno empleo en los años siguientes será unos $10 mil millones inferior al que habría habido en condiciones normales.

Las implicaciones fiscales son sorprendentes. Supongamos que Estados Unidos o las economías más importantes de Europa Occidental incrementan sus compras gubernamentales el próximo año en $100 mil millones. Supongamos además que sus bancos centrales, si bien están poco dispuestos a involucrarse aún más en políticas monetarias no convencionales, tampoco están dispuestos a bloquear las políticas de gobiernos electos haciendo contrapeso a sus esfuerzos por estimular sus economías. En ese caso, un simple multiplicador de condiciones monetarias constantes indica que podemos esperar unos $150 mil millones de PIB adicional. Ese aumento, a su vez, genera $50 mil millones en ingresos fiscales adicionales, lo que implica una adición neta a la deuda nacional de apenas $50 mil millones.

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