非常嫌疑

伯克利—在整个欧洲-大西洋地区,2008—2009年衰退后的复苏一直步履蹒跚,将本可治愈的周期性失业拖成了结构性失业。而资本积累过程中的小趔趄也演变成了旷日持久的投资短缺,也就是说,不光是在复苏不力的当下存在资本存量和真实GDP下降的问题,未来数十年可能都将如此。

西欧20世纪80年代的经验留给我们一条拇指规则:在任何一年,只要劳动力工作时间和资本存量因投资的下降而下降,从而导致产出比正常水平低了1 000亿美元,那么在未来年份中,充分就业的生产潜能就会比正常情况的预计值低100亿美元。

这条拇指规则的财政效应相当令人吃惊。试想一下,美国或西欧核心经济体明年增加1 000亿美元政府购买。再进一步试想一下,它们的中央银行尽管不愿意继续采取非常规货币政策进一步扩大规模,但也不愿意妨碍当选政府的经济刺激措施,让它们难堪。果真如此的话,简单的恒定货币条件乘数表明,我们将能看到GDP增加大约1 500亿美元。如此规模的提振反过来会带来500亿美元的税收增量,而国民财富水平将仅增加500亿美元。

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