Диалог глухих между США и Китаем

НЬЮ-ЙОРК. Намеченный на 19 января визит в США президента Китая Ху Цзиньтао должен состояться в тот момент, когда экономический конфликт между США и Китаем стал одним из наиболее тревожных глобальных событий. На протяжении всего прошлого года США давили на Китай с ревальвацией юаня, а Китай обвинял политику «количественного послабления» ФРС США, что создавало беспорядок на валютном рынке. Стороны не слышали друг друга, хотя обе стороны приводили убедительные доводы.

Глобальные дисбалансы, которые были в корне краха 2008 года, не были устранены – в действительности, некоторые из них только увеличились. США по-прежнему потребляют больше, чем производят, поддерживая хронический дефицит торгового баланса. Потребление остается слишком высоким, составляя почти 70% ВВП, по сравнению с неустойчиво низкими 35,6% ВВП в Китае. Домашние хозяйства имеют чрезмерную задолженность и должны делать больше накоплений.

Экономика США нуждается в более высокой производительности, но американские корпорации, которые работают очень прибыльно, накапливают наличные, вместо того чтобы их инвестировать, и количественное послабление предназначено для ограничения дефляции.

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