Corea del Norte, un test para China y Estados Unidos

MADRID – La península de Corea se ha convertido en uno de los principales focos de tensión internacional debido a las reiteradas amenazas del régimen de Pyongyang. Pese a lo preocupante de la situación, es también una oportunidad para incrementar la confianza estratégica entre China y Estados Unidos, los dos actores fundamentales que pueden solucionar las tensiones. Si los dos gigantes geopolíticos colaboran de manera constructiva para el establecimiento de una paz aceptable para todos, no solo la península coreana, sino la región y el mundo, será un lugar más seguro.

Corea del Norte abandonó hace diez años el Tratado de No Proliferación y se sospecha que ya tiene armas nucleares, aunque no la tecnología balística suficiente como para que los misiles tengan un alcance transoceánico. La capacidad de reducir el tamaño del explosivo es crítica para el despliegue de misiles balísticos. El 12 de febrero de este año, Pyongyang llevó a cabo una prueba nuclear, la tercera desde 2006, y los analistas apuntan a que el tamaño del explosivo se podría haber reducido. Tras la prueba y las consiguientes sanciones –impuestas por la ONU y acordadas entre Estados Unidos y China– el régimen norcoreano comenzó a elevar el tono de las amenazas. A ello se sumó el anuncio de las maniobras anuales conjuntas entre Corea del Sur y Estados Unidos para abril –con bombarderos B52 y B-2 con capacidad nuclear–, que aumentó la tensión con el Norte.

Nadie desea hoy por hoy una guerra en la península coreana. Para el régimen del Norte, supondría su suicidio. Para el Sur, una economía vibrante que tiene firmados sendos acuerdos de libre comercio con Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea y que podría incorporarse al Trans-Pacific Partnership (la gran zona de libre comercio que Estados Unidos proyecta en el Pacífico), miles de muertes innecesarias precisamente en un momento de grandes oportunidades económicas. Para China supondría comprometer las condiciones de estabilidad regional para proseguir con su despegue económico y social. Y para Estados Unidos sería un contratiempo inesperado justo cuando su economía empieza a remontar, con el consiguiente aumento del gasto militar en un momento de retirada tanto de Irak como de Afganistán. EEUU, en pleno giro hacia el Pacífico, prefiere explotar las oportunidades económicas de Asia a verse envuelto en un conflicto de consecuencias imprevisibles.

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