Paul Lachine

Rizika za současnou úlevou

RIO DE JANEIRO – Série pozitivních posunů ve vývoji od závěru minulého roku posílila důvěru investorů a vedla k prudkému zotavení u rizikových aktiv, v prvé řadě globálních akcií a komodit. Makroekonomická data ze Spojených států se zlepšila, nízkorizikové společnosti ve vyspělých zemích zůstávají vysoce ziskové, Čína a rozvíjející se trhy jen mírně zpomalily a riziko neřízeného krachu a/nebo odchodu některých členů z eurozóny se snížilo.

Navíc se zdá, že Evropská centrální banka je pod svým novým prezidentem Mariem Draghim ochotná udělat vše potřebné pro snížení tlaku na bankovní soustavu a vlády eurozóny, jakož i snížit úrokové sazby. Centrální banky ve vyspělých i rozvíjejících se ekonomikách poskytly masivní injekce likvidity. Volatilita je nízká, důvěra vysoká a averze vůči riziku mnohem slabší – prozatím.

Je však pravděpodobné, že se letos projeví přinejmenším čtyři rizika negativního vývoje, podlomí globální růst a nakonec negativně ovlivní důvěru investorů a tržní hodnocení rizikových aktiv.

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