Paul Lachine

الجانب السلبي لارتفاع أسعار الأسهم

ريو دي جانيرو ــ منذ أواخر العام الماضي، كانت سلسلة من التطورات الإيجابية سبباً في تعزيز ثقة المستثمرين ودفعهم إلى التكالب على الأصول الخطرة، بداية بالأسهم والسلع العالمية. كما تحسنت بيانات الاقتصاد الكلي في الولايات المتحدة؛ وظلت الشركات الممتازة في الاقتصادات المتقدمة مربحة للغاية؛ ولم تتباطأ الصين والأسواق الناشئة إلا بقدر معتدل؛ وانحدر خطر التخلف غير المنضبط عن سداد الديون و/أو خروج بعض الدول من منطقة اليورو.

فضلاً عن ذلك، فإن البنك المركزي الأوروبي يبدو الآن تحت إدارة رئيسه الجديد ماريو دراجي على استعداد للقيام بكل ما يلزم للحد من الإجهاد المفروض على النظام المصرفي في منطقة اليورو وحكومتها، وكذلك خفض أسعار الفائدة. كما بادرت البنوك المركزي في كل من الاقتصادات المتقدمة والناشئة إلى ضخ كميات هائلة من السيولة. فهدأت التقلبات وارتفعت الثقة وتراجع العزوف عن خوض المجازفة ــ في الوقت الراهن.

ولكن هناك ما لا يقل عن أربعة مخاطر سلبية من المرجح أن تتحقق هذا العام، فتقوض النمو العالمي وتؤثر سلبياً في نهاية المطاف على ثقة المستثمرين وتقييم السوق للأصول الخطرة.

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