癫痫经济学

伯克利—在整个北大西洋地区,中央银行和政府看起来对于让经济重回充分就业束手无策。欧洲再次陷入了衰退,自2008年金融/主权债务危机以来,它从未真正复苏。美国经济目前已每年1.5%的速度增长(大约比潜在增长率低了整整一个百分点),且这一速度极有可能不保,因为今年的财政将略有收缩。

工业化国家一直经历着周期性的金融危机,随后是高就业,这至少可以追溯到1825年几乎导致英格兰银行倒闭的大恐慌。如此周期让所有人都受害——工人失业,企业家和股东损失利润,政府损失财政收入,债权人遭遇破产后果——对于如何解决这一问题,我们也已经有了至少两百年的经验。那么,为何政府和央行总是失败?

当局为何无法在衰退后迅速重塑充分就业,原因有三。首先,未锚定的通胀预期和结构性困难可能意味着提振需求的努力几乎全部转化为价格的更快增长,而对提高就业毫无用处。这就是20世纪70年代遇到过的问题,但这不是如今遇到的问题。

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