Paul Lachine

日本的经济试验

发自纽波特滩——经过数年的迟疑和纠结之后,如今日本开始启动一场重大政策范式转变,而外界对此反应不一:乐观主义者相信该国最终会摆脱长达四分之一个世纪的经济停滞;也有人担忧当局的巨大变革进程实际上可能会让事情变得更糟。但虽然争论自发地聚焦在日本国内的经济、金融和政治策略,其转折点却很有可能取决于国外。

日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)领导的新政府采取了一个革命性(而非渐变的)经济政策手段,这种方法包括了若干举措——其中有些曾被认为是不合情理、无法想象甚至不受欢迎的。从增加一倍货币供应量来进行额外财政刺激到广泛的结构性改革,新的政策范式堪称得二战后日本最大胆的经济政策实验之一。

为显示他们的严肃性,日本官员们迅速开始打造可衡量的指标。在政策投入方面,他们已经详细制定方案并开始每月购买总额达750亿美元的证券(按相对价值计算,这是目前美联储在其非常规货币政策制度下购买量的三倍)。在产出方面,在多年的通货紧缩之后(上个月价格下降了0.5%),日本现在的目标是两年内通货膨胀率达到2%,从而坚定了自身的承诺——不会提前撤回对经济增长的货币支持。

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